Black Swan
Douban
Nassim / Nicholas Taleb
résumé
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur
contents
Prologue
PART ONE:UMBERTO ECO'ANTILIBRARY,OR HOW WE VALIDATION
PART TOW:WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT
PART THREE:THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN
PART FOUR:THE END
POSTSCRIPT ESAY:ON ROBUSTNESS AND FRAGILITY,DEEPER PHILOSOPHLCAL AND EMPLRICAL REFLECTILONS
