> #Altman is in short-term exit preparation mode, not planning for #AGI or even GPT-5.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41749371
agi
#AI 会取代 #程序员 吗？
会。比如这个：
https://chatgpt.com/share/55fa9983-014f-40b7-884e-f6046ef59b87
初级程序员就像 #翻译 ，不过是把自然语言翻译成程序语言，需要的是词汇和语法。上面这个小题目就是这样，这种问题，#4o 分分钟搞定。虽然确实有一点小瑕疵，但应该也很容易修正，这效率是人类不可能相比的。
高级程序员就像作家，需要的是观察、创造、 #架构 ，等等。这些问题对现在的AI还比较困难。
所以现在用AI写程序比较好的做法是一步步说出来让AI来翻译，如果仅仅告诉AI你的目的，结果质量会大达折扣。
但是过几年呢？很可能AI能赶超高级程序员，观察、创造、架构这些东西也不成问题。这时， #算法 可能是仅剩的人类骄傲了。
但是也没有理由认为AI无法攻克算法，更现实的问题只是什么时候。
实际上，如果真的有了 #AGI ，还需要程序吗？
Edited 242d ago
Abstract: This paper will look at the various predictions that have been made about AI and propose decomposition schemas for analyzing them. It will propose a variety of theoretical tools for analyzing, judging, and improving these predictions. Focusing specifically on timeline predictions (dates given by which we should expect the creation of AI), it will show that there are strong theoretical grounds to expect predictions to be quite poor in this area. Using a database of 95 AI timeline predictions, it will show that these expectations are borne out in practice: expert predictions contradict each other considerably, and are indistinguishable from non-expert predictions and past failed predictions. Predictions that AI lie 15 to 25 years in the future are the most common, from experts and non-experts alike.
Armstrong, Stuart, and Kaj Sotala. 2012. “How We’re Predicting AI—or Failing To.” In Beyond AI: Artificial Dreams, edited by Jan Romportl, Pavel Ircing, Eva Zackova, Michal Polak, and Radek Schuster, 52–75. Pilsen: University of West Bohemia.
Note that this is from 2012.
One wonders what exactly an expert is when it comes to AI, if their track records are so consistently poor and unresponsive to their own failures.
#AI #GenAI #GenerativeAI #AGI
Resistance to the coup is the defense of the human against the digital and the democratic against the oligarchic.
Defense of the human against the digital has been my mission for some time. Resisting the narratives about how #LLMs "reason", "pass the Turing test", "diagnose illnesses", are "better than humans" in various ways are part of it. Resisting the false narrative that we're on the verge of discovering #AGI is part of it. Allowing these false stories to persist and spread means succumbing to very dark anti-human forces. We're seeing some of the consequences now, and we're seeing how far this might go.
#USPol #AI #GenAI #GenerativeAI #LLM #AGI