useconomy

Looks like Apollo is calling a recession for Summer 2025. The Trump crew is already trying to blame Biden, but that's 100% horseshit. From what I gather this is unlikely to be reversible so brace yourself in whichever ways you can. There are suggestions this one may be worse than 2008.

https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/042625-ConsumerandFirms_v2.pdf (see page 4 for a summary of the timeline + expectation)

#USPol #USEconomy #recession #GreatRecession

I think it's wild that cryptocurrencies are also crashing along with the US stock market. I mean, I feel like they're doomed to crash generally but there legitimately seemed to be enthusiasm in that industry that Trump would make the line go up.

#TrumpRecession #TrumpCrash #crypto #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #USEconomy #USPol

I hope there are journalists digging into who sold and who bought stocks and cryptocurrencies, which ones and when, leading up to Apr 2 and in the next few weeks.

The low-effort generative AI looking tariff rates is a tell. The fact bitcoin moved the same way as US stock indices has a bad smell about it too.

#TrumpAndDump #PumpAndDump #tariff #USPol #USEconomy #con

In all the talk of US trade deficits forcing Trump et al. to erect tariff barriers to "rebalance trade", we've lost or ignored the fact that the US has an enormous digital trade surplus. See, for instance, this paper Estimating digital product trade through corporate revenue data. The US's main conventional export is currently petroleum, but it exports over twice as much in digital advertising. The US's overall "digital exports" are larger than the total exports of France, which is the world's 7th leading exporter. However, these numbers are not typically included in reports about trade deficits or surpluses.

#Trump #tariffs #USPol #USEconomy #GlobalTrade #trade