《创新进化史》详实研究了600年科技发展的历史，通过基因改造、机械制冷、电力、录制音乐等7个人类创新史上的精彩案例，向我们展示了新技术如何出现、生根，并建立适于自身的新制度生态的过程。 本书还从历史发展角度，研究了当今社会对人工智能、在线学习、3D打印、基因修饰、机器人、无人机和可再生能源等科技的争论及其进展，提供了能帮助创新者避免大部分困境的指导与启示。 《创新进化史》观点兼具历史性和前瞻性，书中详述的许多经验教训都超越了技术创新的范畴，而适用于更广泛的社会创新；对于创业者、政策制定者、学者以及希望在创新进化浪潮中抓住机遇的人而言，这是一本必读书。

《商业银行风险计量理论与实务:〈巴塞尔资本协议〉核心技术(修订版)》自铺陈纸笔伊始，我和出版社对于这本专业性强、受众面小的书籍在销售方面就没抱太多期望，坚持成书主要还是出于对记录、总结我国商业银行风险计量的那一段历史和经验的责任感，甚至出版社也是看在我是一个专业的认真写书人份儿上而给予了支持。没有想到的是，出版后销售情况竟然还可以，陆陆续续销售一空后，订购需求仍然旺盛。这一方面说明我国关注和从事商业银行风险计量的人员在增加，侧面反映出我国商业银行在风险管理精细化方面的努力和进步；另一方面也说明读者对我的辛勤劳作还是较为认可，于是才有了编辑和我商量再版事宜的桥段。

本书是作者从事信贷工作的学习和思考笔记。 作者在书中不仅介绍了信贷基础知识、信贷调查方法，还结合亲身体验，从风险管理视角，详细介绍如何甄别客户信息，如何分析客户的财务状况和经营管理水平，对于贷款项目评估、担保措施调查、授信审查审批、合同与放款、贷后管理、贷款回收管理这些重要事项，更是毫无保留地做了坦诚分享。 书末还提供了重要信贷法律法规，是从事信贷工作人员的好帮手。

TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1: The Basics of Risk ManagementThis chapter introduces how banks work. It describes how they make money, how they often lose money, and how they try to manage their losses. It includes thirteen short case studies showing how banks have lost money. Chapter 2: Risk Measurement at the Corporate Level: Economic Capital and RAROCChapter Two discusses the meaning of capital and how the risks that a bank faces are related to the amount of capital that the bank should hold. It then describes the two fundamental building blocks of integrated risk measurement: Economic Capital and Risk Adjusted Return on Capital (RAROC). Chapter 3: Review of StatisticsChapter Three is useful for those readers who do not have a recent working knowledge of statistics. It reviews the statistical relationships that are commonly used in risk measurement and provides reference material for the rest of the book. Examples are provided using financial loss data. MARKET RISK SECTION Chapter 4: Background on Traded InstrumentsThis chapter gives an overview of the main types of traded instruments: bonds, equities and derivatives. It gives a qualitative description of the instrument, examples of calculating the instrument's value and the basic risk metrics such as duration and the Greeks. This chapter is useful for those readers who are new to the finance industry. Chapter 5: Market Risk MeasurementThis chapter describes the most common ways to measure market risks: Sensitivity analysis, Stress testing, Scenario testing, Sharpe Ratio and Value at Risk. It gives detailed examples of using each of the metrics. Chapter 6: The Three Common Approaches for Calculating Value at RiskValue at Risk (VaR) has become the standard approach for measuring market risk. This chapter is devoted to explaining the details of the three common approaches to calculating VaR: Parametric VaR, Historical VaR and Monte Carlo VaR. We work though increasingly complex examples and compare the strengths of each approach. (Note: many readers will be particularly interested in this chapter because the name "VaR" is well known and has a certain mystery) Chapter 7: Value at Risk ContributionThe Value at Risk Contribution (VaRC) is a useful way of pinpointing the source of the portfolio's risk. VaRC can break down the risk by instrument, trading desk or market risk factor. Examples are given for several types of VaRC. Chapter 8: Testing VaR Results to Ensure Proper Risk MeasurementThis chapter discusses the procedures required by regulators to backtest VaR calculators to check that their predictions of losses are consistent with market events. Chapter 9: Calculating Capital for Market RiskVaR is used as the basis for calculating both Regulatory Capital and Economic Capital for Market Risks. In this chapter VaR also extended to measure the risk of Asset Management operations. Chapter 10: Overcoming VaR LimitationsAlthough VaR is the best single metric for market risks, is has several limitations. The limitations and typical solutions are discussed in this chapter. Chapter 11: The Management of Market Risk This chapter concludes the market risk section by describing how the results of risk measurement are used by management to identify the sources of risk. It also describes the process of setting VaR Limits. (Note: readers should be particularly interested in VaR Limits because it is difficult and an important element in controlling a bank's risk). ASSET/LIABILITY MANGEMENT SECTION Chapter 12: Introduction to Asset Liability ManagementAsset Liability Management (ALM) is primarily concerned with the interest rate and liquidity risks that are created when commercial banks take in short term deposits from customers and give out long term loans. This chapter describes how those risks arise and the risk characteristics of different types of deposits and loans. Chapter 13: Measurement of Interest Rate Risk for ALMThis chapter discussed the primary techniques used to measure interest rate risk: Gap reports, Rate shift scenarios and Simulations Chapter 14: Funding Liquidity Risk in ALMThe measurement of liquidity risk is broken into three groups: expected, unusual and crisis events. Measurement techniques are given for each group. Chapter 15: Funds Transfer Pricing and the Management of ALM RisksA key use of asset/liability measurement is the calculation of the fair price at which funds should be lent from one department to another within a bank. This is one of the keys to integrated risk measurement and is a critical component in measuring risk-adjusted profitability and setting prices to customers. A typical balance sheet is used to illustrate how transfer pricing works in detail. CREDIT RISK SECTION Chapter 16: Introduction to Credit RiskThis chapter discusses the sources of credit risk and how measurement is used to manage the risks Chapter 17: Types of Credit StructureFor readers who are unfamiliar with lending operations, we discuss the ways that credit exposures are structured in commercial and retail lending. It also describes the calculation of credit exposure for derivatives trading operations and gives an overview of credit derivatives. Chapter 18: Risk Measurement for a Single FacilityThis chapter shows how the Expected Loss and Unexpected Loss for a loan can be calculated from the Probability of Default, Loss In the Event of Default, Exposure at Default and the Grade Migration Matrix. Chapter 19: Estimating Parameter Values for Single FacilitiesOne of the main difficulties in credit risk measurement is the estimation of values for Probability of Default, Loss Given Default and Exposure at Default. This chapter discusses estimation techniques such as Discriminant Analysis and the Merton Model. It also gives parameter values that can be used as the basis for the reader's own models. The parameter values are used in examples to demonstrate how the credit risk calculations are used. Chapter 20: Risk Measurement For A Credit Portfolio: Part OneTo estimate the overall risk for a portfolio many credit instruments, we must examine the correlation between losses. This chapter describes the Covariance Credit Portfolio Model and the different approaches available for estimating default correlations. It also describes how the correlations can be used to estimate the Unexpected Loss Contribution and the Economic Capital for a single facility within a portfolio. Chapter 21: Risk Measurement For A Credit Portfolio: Part TwoThis chapter describes the four other widely used approaches for estimating the risk of credit portfolios: the actuarial model, the Merton-based simulation model, the macro economic default model and the macro economic cashflow model used for structured and project finance. It concludes with a section describing how the models can be combined in a unified framework to create an integrated simulation of all the bank's risks Chapter 22: Risk Adjusted Performance and Pricing for LoansKnowing the economic capital for a loan, this chapter shows how to calculate the minimum price that should be charged to a loan customer. The analysis shows how to include multi-year effects such as grade migration. Illustrative examples are included. (Note: this chapter should be of interest to readers because loan pricing is another difficult and important subject that is rarely discussed in other books) Chapter 23: Regulatory Capital for Credit RiskThe Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (often called the BIS) is planning fundamental changes to the way that banks must calculate the capital that they hold. The new calculations will be very similar to the calculations described in the rest of this book for economic capital. This chapter summarizes the history of the Capital Accords then compares the different approaches that the BIS will allow. It also gives a standard plan for implementing the new Accords. (Note: this should be of interest to readers because the shift to BIS measurement is of major importance, it will be difficult for most banks, and it must be completed by 2005) OPERATING RISK SECTION Chapter 24: Operating riskThe quantification of Operating Risks is on the frontier of the industry's understanding of risk measurement. The risk estimation approaches can be categorized as either qualitative, structural or actuarial. These approaches are described including Key Risk Indicators and the BIS approaches. INTEGRATED RISK SECTION Chapter 25: Inter-risk Diversification and Bank-Level RAROCThis chapter describes how all the models are linked to calculate Economic Capital and Risk Adjusted Profitability for the Bank as a whole. It concludes with of the steps normally required to implement the bank-wide measurement of Economic Capital and RAROC.pital and RAROC.

风险管理是企业经营、股市投资、金融保险、星际探险等一切行为成功的要素，也使人类好睹的天性得以转化为经济增长、生活提高和科技发展的能量。 该书是一部轰动世界金融界的畅销书。作者通过考察人类探索风险的艰难历程，使用一个个精心整理的真实故事，描述了希腊哲学家和阿拉伯数学家、商人和科学家、举世闻名的思想家和虽名不见经传但颇有灵感的业余学者在帮助发现使将来为今天服务、用选择和决策替代在命运面前束手无策等现代手段过程中的趣闻佚事，旨在向我们说明：风险不仅是可以认识的，也是可以控制和掌握的；风险并不可怕，在现代社会里，承受有效的风险往往可以得到高额的回报，管理风险已经成为挑战与机遇的同义词。所有这些对于我们更好地了解风险、认识风险以至最终控制风险会有很大帮助。 本书考察了人类探索风险的艰难历程。历史上一直存在两种意见：一派人坚持认为最好的决策应以过去的模式和数据为基础，另一派人则认为决策应基于对不确定的未来更大程度的主观判断。作者从古希腊、古罗马时代及文艺复兴时代一直讲述到现在，精妙地将复杂的投资理念诠释成风格清新的故事，描述了哲学家、数学家、科学家、思想家、商人、业余学者等是如何努力让未来服务于现在的。风险与其说是一种命运，不如说是一种选择，它取决于我们选择的自由程度。全书尽管涉及不少概率问题，但却仍能写得生动有趣，极为人性化，足见作者之功力。 本书适合高等院校经济管理类师生及广大普通读者阅读、参考。

在发现澳大利亚的黑天鹅之前，欧洲人认为天鹅都是白色的，“黑天鹅”曾经是欧洲人言谈与写作中的惯用语，用来指不可能存在的事物，但这个不可动摇的信念随着第一只黑天鹅的出现而崩溃。 黑天鹅的存在寓意着不可预测的重大稀有事件，它在意料之外，却又改变一切。人类总是过度相信经验，而不知道一只黑天鹅的出现就足以颠覆一切。然而，无论是在对股市的预期，还是政府的决策中，黑天鹅都是无法预测的。“9•11”事件、美国的次级贷危机、中国的雪灾，都是如此。 生活中，随机性随处可见，在资本市场也是一样。人们总是以自己有限的生活经验和不堪一击的信念来解释不可预测的事件；即便是精于算计的专业人士，也难保不被随机性愚弄，其实我们应该做的是顺应这种不可知的未来。这本书会教你改变自己的思维方式，把握黑天鹅带来的机会，采取应对策略，从中受益。